This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing GOBBluth89’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
GOBBluth89 | training | published before 2020 | 75 | 0 |
GOBBluth89 | validation | published 2020 | 12 | 0 |
GOBBluth89 | test | published after 2020 | 6 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
GOBBluth89 | Fantasy Flight Games | 32.0% | 1.1% | 29.89 |
GOBBluth89 | CMON Global Limited | 5.3% | 0.4% | 14.87 |
GOBBluth89 | Asmodee | 32.0% | 2.5% | 12.57 |
GOBBluth89 | Collectible Components | 17.3% | 1.7% | 10.09 |
GOBBluth89 | Artist Klemens Franz | 4.0% | 0.6% | 6.60 |
GOBBluth89 | Pegasus Spiele | 12.0% | 2.2% | 5.47 |
GOBBluth89 | Bluffing | 22.7% | 5.7% | 3.99 |
GOBBluth89 | Public Domain | 2.7% | 0.7% | 3.67 |
GOBBluth89 | Acting | 4.0% | 1.2% | 3.31 |
GOBBluth89 | Hand Management | 54.7% | 20.1% | 2.72 |
GOBBluth89 | Deduction Game | 13.3% | 5.1% | 2.63 |
GOBBluth89 | Mattel Inc | 2.7% | 1.2% | 2.29 |
GOBBluth89 | Fantasy | 17.3% | 11.9% | 1.46 |
GOBBluth89 | Party Game | 13.3% | 9.4% | 1.42 |
GOBBluth89 | Movement Points | 1.3% | 2.4% | 0.57 |
GOBBluth89 | Japan | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.00 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.995 | yes |
2 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.951 | no |
3 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.929 | yes |
4 | 2012 | 124742 | Android: Netrunner | 0.898 | yes |
5 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.889 | no |
6 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.876 | no |
7 | 2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.874 | no |
8 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.853 | no |
9 | 2010 | 73171 | Earth Reborn | 0.814 | no |
10 | 2017 | 221107 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | 0.773 | no |
11 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.698 | no |
12 | 2018 | 252328 | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | 0.693 | yes |
13 | 2008 | 33107 | Senji | 0.621 | no |
14 | 2017 | 184151 | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | 0.580 | no |
15 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.555 | no |
16 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.528 | no |
17 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.524 | yes |
18 | 2008 | 39953 | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game | 0.518 | no |
19 | 2018 | 313010 | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | 0.517 | no |
20 | 2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.504 | no |
21 | 2000 | 478 | Citadels | 0.492 | no |
22 | 2014 | 148228 | Splendor | 0.488 | no |
23 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.465 | no |
24 | 2012 | 103885 | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game | 0.457 | yes |
25 | 2009 | 45134 | Arcana | 0.415 | no |
26 | 1800 | 45 | Perudo | 0.400 | no |
27 | 2015 | 169255 | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | 0.399 | yes |
28 | 2006 | 21241 | Neuroshima Hex! 3.0 | 0.389 | no |
29 | 2016 | 205359 | Star Wars: Destiny | 0.378 | yes |
30 | 2015 | 170216 | Blood Rage | 0.367 | no |
31 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.366 | no |
32 | 2009 | 43868 | The Adventurers: The Temple of Chac | 0.347 | no |
33 | 2011 | 59959 | Letters from Whitechapel | 0.346 | no |
34 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.340 | no |
35 | 2008 | 22826 | Mutant Chronicles Collectible Miniatures Game | 0.332 | no |
36 | 2019 | 253344 | Cthulhu: Death May Die | 0.332 | no |
37 | 2015 | 183562 | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game – The Force Awakens Core Set | 0.324 | no |
38 | 2019 | 272453 | KeyForge: Age of Ascension | 0.318 | no |
39 | 2003 | 6472 | A Game of Thrones | 0.314 | no |
40 | 2016 | 204837 | Game of Thrones: The Iron Throne | 0.313 | no |
41 | 2005 | 18833 | Lord of the Rings: The Confrontation | 0.313 | no |
42 | 2005 | 18723 | Aye, Dark Overlord! The Red Box | 0.300 | no |
43 | 2004 | 8817 | Call of Cthulhu: Collectible Card Game | 0.276 | no |
44 | 2012 | 104363 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | 0.274 | no |
45 | 2011 | 103343 | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game (Second Edition) | 0.270 | yes |
46 | 2002 | 4390 | Carcassonne: Hunters and Gatherers | 0.269 | no |
47 | 2016 | 196326 | Love Letter Premium | 0.260 | no |
48 | 2009 | 47185 | Warhammer: Invasion | 0.234 | no |
49 | 2012 | 121921 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | 0.229 | no |
50 | 2009 | 60131 | Ugg-Tect | 0.228 | no |
51 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.225 | no |
52 | 2006 | 14808 | Marvel Heroes | 0.218 | no |
53 | 2009 | 54043 | Jaipur | 0.202 | no |
54 | 2004 | 9220 | Saboteur | 0.202 | no |
55 | 2011 | 77423 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game | 0.196 | yes |
56 | 2000 | 26055 | Twilight Imperium: Second Edition | 0.193 | no |
57 | 2013 | 147303 | Carcassonne: South Seas | 0.190 | no |
58 | 2015 | 182874 | Grand Austria Hotel | 0.184 | no |
59 | 2008 | 40270 | Call of Cthulhu: The Card Game | 0.183 | no |
60 | 1982 | 170 | Family Business | 0.177 | no |
61 | 2018 | 257499 | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | 0.173 | no |
62 | 2016 | 204305 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | 0.168 | no |
63 | 2017 | 195539 | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | 0.167 | no |
64 | 2018 | 257501 | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | 0.166 | yes |
65 | 2013 | 143741 | BANG! The Dice Game | 0.164 | no |
66 | 2016 | 200680 | Agricola (Revised Edition) | 0.160 | no |
67 | 2001 | 1345 | Genoa | 0.158 | no |
68 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.155 | no |
69 | 2005 | 12493 | Twilight Imperium: Third Edition | 0.151 | yes |
70 | 2010 | 68182 | Isla Dorada | 0.148 | no |
71 | 2012 | 131646 | Merchant of Venus (Second Edition) | 0.148 | no |
72 | 2010 | 36367 | Dust Tactics | 0.142 | no |
73 | 2014 | 151369 | Illegal | 0.140 | no |
74 | 1998 | 503 | Through the Desert | 0.139 | no |
75 | 2018 | 259970 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Two-Player Limited Edition Starter | 0.131 | no |
76 | 2018 | 256226 | Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra | 0.131 | no |
77 | 2002 | 4286 | A Game of Thrones Collectible Card Game | 0.131 | no |
78 | 2016 | 148261 | SeaFall | 0.129 | no |
79 | 2018 | 258444 | Gingerbread House | 0.128 | no |
80 | 2015 | 161936 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 | 0.126 | no |
81 | 1997 | 11 | Bohnanza | 0.126 | no |
82 | 1995 | 13 | Catan | 0.126 | yes |
83 | 2009 | 31563 | Middle-Earth Quest | 0.124 | no |
84 | 2019 | 264220 | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon | 0.123 | no |
85 | 2018 | 206715 | Ultimate Werewolf Legacy | 0.122 | no |
86 | 2019 | 244099 | Herbaceous Sprouts | 0.122 | no |
87 | 2017 | 220775 | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | 0.119 | no |
88 | 2013 | 144239 | Impulse | 0.119 | no |
89 | 2014 | 164153 | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | 0.118 | yes |
90 | 2010 | 25292 | Merchants & Marauders | 0.115 | no |
91 | 2012 | 129736 | Cockroach Poker Royal | 0.115 | no |
92 | 2015 | 146508 | T.I.M.E Stories | 0.114 | no |
93 | 2004 | 13004 | The Downfall of Pompeii | 0.114 | no |
94 | 2013 | 140620 | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | 0.114 | no |
95 | 2011 | 102548 | Dungeon Fighter | 0.113 | no |
96 | 2016 | 156858 | Black Orchestra | 0.112 | no |
97 | 2012 | 129976 | Game of Thrones: The Card Game | 0.112 | no |
98 | 2019 | 266936 | Slyville | 0.112 | no |
99 | 2012 | 126750 | Sky Tango | 0.110 | no |
100 | 2018 | 253106 | Narcos: The Board Game | 0.110 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.89 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.68 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think GOBBluth89 is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.951 | no |
2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.889 | no |
2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.876 | no |
2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.874 | no |
2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.853 | no |
What games does the model think GOBBluth89 is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2000 | 822 | Carcassonne | 0.000 | yes |
2019 | 281073 | Cat Lady: Premium Edition | 0.000 | yes |
2013 | 142296 | Funemployed | 0.000 | yes |
2018 | 244228 | Reef | 0.001 | yes |
2019 | 274637 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume One | 0.001 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Android: Netrunner | Glass Road | Splendor | 504 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Rising Sun | Aftermath |
2 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Carcassonne: South Seas | Illegal | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | Star Wars: Rebellion | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | Newton | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
3 | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game | BANG! The Dice Game | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | Blood Rage | Star Wars: Destiny | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
4 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | Impulse | Roll for the Galaxy | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game – The Force Awakens Core Set | Game of Thrones: The Iron Throne | Fallout | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
5 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Sheriff of Nottingham | Grand Austria Hotel | Love Letter Premium | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | KeyForge: Age of Ascension |
6 | Merchant of Venus (Second Edition) | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Spyfall | Pandemic Legacy: Season 1 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
7 | Cockroach Poker Royal | Crossing | Black Fleet | T.I.M.E Stories | Agricola (Revised Edition) | SpyNet | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Two-Player Limited Edition Starter | Herbaceous Sprouts |
8 | Game of Thrones: The Card Game | Eldritch Horror | Ultimate Werewolf | Forbidden Stars | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Codenames: Duet | Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra | Slyville |
9 | Sky Tango | Rococo | Castles of Mad King Ludwig | Zaginione Dziedzictwo: Gwiezdne Ostrze | SeaFall | Gloomhaven | Gingerbread House | Era: Medieval Age |
10 | Space Cadets | Empire Engine | King of New York | Lost Legacy: Second Chronicle – Vorpal Sword & Whitegold Spire | Black Orchestra | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Ultimate Werewolf Legacy | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
11 | Love Letter | Gunrunners | Warhammer 40,000: Conquest | Star Wars: Armada | Citadels | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Doo-Arann Dungeon | Narcos: The Board Game | The Magnificent |
12 | Mafia: Vendetta | BattleLore: Second Edition | Orléans | Imagine | Terraforming Mars | Altiplano | Everdell | Black Angel |
13 | Scripts and Scribes: The Dice Game | Forbidden Desert | Lost Legacy: Flying Garden | Love Letter: Batman | Turin Market | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Vanishing from Hyde Park | Cosmic Run: Regeneration | Unmatched Game System |
14 | Il Vecchio | Slash: Romance without boundaries | Patchwork | Love Letter: Adventure Time | Czas Zaorać Socjalizm | Spirit Island | Coimbra | Maracaibo |
15 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Petits meurtres & faits divers: au tribunal | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | The Voyages of Marco Polo | The Butterfly Garden | Riverboat | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | Tapestry |
16 | Star Wars: The Card Game | Lost Legacy: Hyakunen Senso to Ryu no Miko | Star Wars: Empire vs. Rebellion | Elfenroads | Codenames: Deep Undercover | Downforce | Concordia Venus | KeyForge: Worlds Collide |
17 | Kemet | Zombicide Season 2: Prison Outbreak | Lost Legacy: The Starship | Lost Legacy: Third Chronicle – Sacred Grail & Staff of Dragons | Ticket to Ride: First Journey (U.S.) | Richard the Lionheart | Shadows: Amsterdam | One Night Ultimate Super Villains |
18 | Android: Infiltration | Train Heist | Pandemic: The Cure | Biblios Dice | Archer: Once You Go Blackmail... | Dragon Castle | The Grizzled: Armistice Edition | Goat 'n' Goat |
19 | Zombicide | The Doom That Came to Atlantic City | AquaSphere | Mombasa | DOOM: The Board Game | Bali | TOKYO JIDOHANBAIKI | Paladins of the West Kingdom |
20 | Keyflower | Dungeon Twister: The Card Game | One Night Ultimate Werewolf | Oh My Goods! | The Colonists | Stop Thief! | Fireball Island: The Curse of Vul-Kar | Paranormal Detectives |
21 | Rumble in the Dungeon | Blood Bound | Three Kingdoms Redux | Runebound (Third Edition) | Robo Rally | Santo Domingo | A Song of Ice & Fire: Tabletop Miniatures Game – Stark vs Lannister Starter Set | Crusader Kings |
22 | Dixit Jinx | Cappuccino | Saboteur: The Duel | The Grizzled | Dust 1947 | Star Wars: Destiny – Two-Player Game | Treasure Island | Trails of Tucana |
23 | Winter Tales | Warhammer: Diskwars | Sons of Anarchy: Men of Mayhem | Hengist | Pandemic: Iberia | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Fifth Avenue | Werewords Deluxe Edition | Zombicide: Invader |
24 | Archipelago | Bruges | Good Cop Bad Cop | Het Koninkrijk Dominion | Codenames: Pictures | One Night Ultimate Alien | Silicon Valley Startups | God of War: The Card Game |
25 | Agricola: All Creatures Big and Small | Pelican Bay | The Black Rose | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | Covert | New Lost Legacy | Rebel Nox | Azul: Summer Pavilion |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
GOBBluth89 | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.910 |
GOBBluth89 | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.755 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.368 | no |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.235 | yes |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.227 | no |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.145 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.105 | no |
2020 | 304285 | Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game | 0.100 | no |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.055 | yes |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.046 | no |
2020 | 296892 | Sacred Rites | 0.043 | no |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.042 | no |
2020 | 301716 | Glasgow | 0.042 | no |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.041 | yes |
2020 | 301880 | Raiders of Scythia | 0.038 | no |
2020 | 298638 | Sheriff of Nottingham: 2nd Edition | 0.037 | no |
2020 | 299607 | Capital Lux 2: Generations | 0.037 | no |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.037 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.037 | yes |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.036 | no |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.035 | no |
2020 | 301607 | KeyForge: Mass Mutation | 0.034 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.033 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.033 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.032 | no |
2020 | 261403 | Inhuman Conditions | 0.030 | no |
2020 | 299179 | Chancellorsville 1863 | 0.028 | no |
2020 | 318183 | Prehistories | 0.026 | no |
2020 | 287742 | TIME Stories Revolution: The Hadal Project | 0.025 | no |
2020 | 271524 | TIME Stories Revolution: A Midsummer Night | 0.024 | no |
2020 | 287033 | Gray Eminence | 0.023 | no |
2020 | 297030 | Tekhenu: Obelisk of the Sun | 0.022 | no |
2020 | 309113 | Ticket to Ride: Amsterdam | 0.022 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.022 | no |
2020 | 301767 | Mysterium Park | 0.021 | no |
2020 | 256999 | Project: ELITE | 0.021 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 299592 | Beez | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 327913 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Arsène Lupin und der große weiße Diamant | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 318084 | Furnace | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 293889 | Fallout Shelter: The Board Game | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 302809 | Betrayal at Mystery Mansion | 0.020 | no |
2020 | 298047 | Marvel United | 0.019 | no |
2020 | 293296 | Splendor: Marvel | 0.018 | no |
2020 | 308416 | Tapeworm | 0.017 | no |
2020 | 308652 | Age of Dogfights: WW1 | 0.017 | no |
2020 | 282922 | Windward | 0.016 | no |
2020 | 313817 | Hello Neighbor: The Secret Neighbor Party Game | 0.015 | no |
2020 | 283155 | Calico | 0.015 | yes |
2020 | 293141 | King of Tokyo: Dark Edition | 0.013 | no |
2020 | 295905 | Cosmic Frog | 0.013 | no |
2020 | 302723 | Forgotten Waters | 0.013 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.790 | no |
2 | 2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.755 | no |
3 | 2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.366 | yes |
4 | 2022 | 326933 | Unmatched: Redemption Row | 0.282 | no |
5 | 2022 | 326934 | Unmatched: Hell's Kitchen | 0.282 | no |
6 | 2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.264 | yes |
7 | 2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.246 | no |
8 | 2021 | 295947 | Cascadia | 0.206 | no |
9 | 2022 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.198 | no |
10 | 2021 | 333553 | For the King (and Me) | 0.175 | no |
11 | 2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.132 | no |
12 | 2022 | 357746 | Disney Sorcerer's Arena: Epic Alliances Core Set | 0.121 | no |
13 | 2021 | 340677 | Bad Company | 0.120 | no |
14 | 2021 | 339905 | Love Letter: Princess Princess Ever After | 0.112 | no |
15 | 2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.100 | no |
16 | 2021 | 324242 | Sheepy Time | 0.091 | no |
17 | 2021 | 291847 | Mantis Falls | 0.079 | no |
18 | 2021 | 298069 | Cubitos | 0.073 | no |
19 | 2021 | 337397 | Warhammer Underworlds: Two-Player Starter Set | 0.071 | no |
20 | 2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.070 | no |
21 | 2021 | 341169 | Great Western Trail (Second Edition) | 0.069 | no |
22 | 2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.062 | no |
23 | 2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.059 | no |
24 | 2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.051 | no |
25 | 2021 | 294986 | Necromolds: Monster Battles | 0.051 | no |
26 | 2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.048 | no |
27 | 2021 | 300305 | Nanga Parbat | 0.047 | no |
28 | 2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.047 | no |
29 | 2021 | 331685 | Hit the Silk! | 0.046 | no |
30 | 2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.043 | no |
31 | 2021 | 316343 | Capital Lux 2: Pocket | 0.043 | no |
32 | 2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.040 | no |
33 | 2022 | 346199 | A Game of Thrones: B'Twixt | 0.040 | no |
34 | 2021 | 308989 | Bristol 1350 | 0.037 | no |
35 | 2021 | 316080 | KeyForge: Dark Tidings | 0.036 | no |
36 | 2021 | 328286 | Mission ISS | 0.033 | no |
37 | 2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.032 | no |
38 | 2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.032 | no |
39 | 2021 | 308119 | Pax Renaissance: 2nd Edition | 0.032 | no |
40 | 2022 | 326945 | Castles of Mad King Ludwig: Collector's Edition | 0.031 | no |
41 | 2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.030 | no |
42 | 2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.030 | no |
43 | 2021 | 311920 | Ultimate Werewolf: Extreme | 0.030 | no |
44 | 2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.029 | no |
45 | 2021 | 283242 | The Whatnot Cabinet | 0.029 | no |
46 | 2021 | 336794 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.028 | no |
47 | 2021 | 300523 | Biblios: Quill and Parchment | 0.028 | no |
48 | 2021 | 315937 | X-Men: Mutant Insurrection | 0.028 | no |
49 | 2021 | 313730 | Harsh Shadows | 0.027 | no |
50 | 2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.027 | no |
51 | 2021 | 259962 | Stress Botics | 0.027 | no |
52 | 2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.026 | no |
53 | 2021 | 347304 | Time's Up!: Harry Potter | 0.025 | no |
54 | 2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.025 | no |
55 | 2023 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.023 | no |
56 | 2022 | 332393 | Bridge City Poker | 0.023 | no |
57 | 2022 | 308028 | Drop Drive | 0.023 | no |
58 | 2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.022 | no |
59 | 2021 | 304783 | Hadrian's Wall | 0.022 | no |
60 | 2021 | 336382 | Marvel United: X-Men | 0.022 | no |
61 | 2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.022 | no |
62 | 2021 | 346553 | Heuschrecken Poker | 0.022 | no |
63 | 2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.020 | no |
64 | 2022 | 341945 | La Granja: Deluxe Master Set | 0.020 | no |
65 | 2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.020 | no |
66 | 2022 | 331398 | Mythic Battles: Ragnarök | 0.020 | no |
67 | 2021 | 283387 | Rocketmen | 0.019 | no |
68 | 2022 | 342900 | Earthborne Rangers | 0.019 | no |
69 | 2022 | 323707 | MOB: Big Apple | 0.018 | no |
70 | 2021 | 339790 | Cocktail | 0.017 | no |
71 | 2022 | 353470 | Star Wars: Jabba's Palace – A Love Letter Game | 0.017 | no |
72 | 2021 | 304333 | Zoollywood | 0.017 | no |
73 | 2021 | 298383 | Golem | 0.016 | no |
74 | 2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.016 | no |
75 | 2021 | 340834 | Gravwell: 2nd Edition | 0.016 | no |
76 | 2021 | 316287 | Quest | 0.015 | no |
77 | 2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.015 | no |
78 | 2021 | 320960 | Roll In One | 0.015 | no |
79 | 2021 | 299255 | Vienna Connection | 0.015 | no |
80 | 2021 | 295931 | Granada: Last Stand of the Moors – 1482-1492 | 0.014 | no |
81 | 2022 | 325348 | Successors (Fourth Edition) | 0.014 | no |
82 | 2021 | 302510 | Mining Colony | 0.014 | no |
83 | 2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.014 | no |
84 | 2021 | 337787 | Summer Camp | 0.014 | no |
85 | 2021 | 298378 | Maharaja | 0.013 | no |
86 | 2021 | 307862 | Dollars to Donuts | 0.013 | no |
87 | 2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.013 | no |
88 | 2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.013 | no |
89 | 2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.013 | no |
90 | 2021 | 319792 | Fly-A-Way | 0.013 | no |
91 | 2021 | 257435 | Brick & Mortar | 0.012 | no |
92 | 2021 | 343696 | Dune: Betrayal | 0.012 | no |
93 | 2022 | 293941 | Mage Noir | 0.012 | no |
94 | 2021 | 332290 | Stardew Valley: The Board Game | 0.012 | no |
95 | 2021 | 322622 | Floriferous | 0.012 | no |
96 | 2021 | 262201 | Sword & Sorcery: Ancient Chronicles | 0.012 | no |
97 | 2021 | 344408 | Full Throttle! | 0.012 | no |
98 | 2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.012 | no |
99 | 2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.012 | no |
100 | 2022 | 340672 | Council of 12 | 0.012 | no |